IPFreely wrote:
Sure you haven't combined the costs of Mustang and Lightning?
Mustang is supposed to come in sub-£100 per premises passed and less than £1.5 billion total.
Believe VM aren't doing any more plant upgrade in terms of RF bandwidth but still have some plans for the HFC.
You're right, my maths is shonky, although if they can stick to a £1.5bn budget in these times I'll be amazed. Even so, it still doesn't take away from my argument - why invest in improving the old technology when you're telling the world you are building it's replacement? There appears to be some muddled thinking at VM Towers, that they'll put in the basics of XGS-PON for some billions, with nothing budgeted for drop links and CPE. If VM are indeed investing in HFC and doing something akin to my D three-point-half (esp symmetric speeds), they surely they may as well have gone the whole hog of D4.0, and not bothered with the PON plans at all. Worst case, VM keep twiddling the knobs on DOCSIS but that won't get symmetric speeds, and by the time any VM XGS-PON product is available, Openreach and altnets will have cornered such commercial market as exists for symmetrical or fast uploads. Best case VM upgrade DOCSIS, it delivers LLD and symmetric, is available commercially to counter (eg) Vodafone recent 2 Gbps symmetric announcement, but then there's no returns on the PON investment because nobody will want anything better than 2-10 gig symmetric. It's not good either way, is it?
Last time I saw planning that bad was when working in the former Soviet Union shortly after the fall of Communism. The city of Leningrad needed two new super sewers, each leading to a massive new sewage treatment plant to serve respectively the south and north of the city. As they didn't have the money to do all of it, they built one super sewer and one treatment plant. Unfortunately, due to VM-style planning, they built the northern sewer to a treatment plant that didn't exist, and built the southern treatment plant but without any sewer to bring in the raw foulage, with the result that the entirety of the city's sewage from 5.5m people and a heavy industrial base was thrown into the Gulf of Finland without any treatment at all.