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IPv6 support on Virgin media

dgcarter
Dialled in

Does anyone know whether (and if so when) Virgin plan to implement IPv6 on its network?

1,493 REPLIES 1,493

@matthewsteeples:  Although it's only a guess, if my interpretation of the numbers is correct then the rollout on an opt-in basis for trialists has already been carried out.

Of the 5 vertical red bars on my graph, bar #1 marks the peak of the initial convening and acceptance of IPv6 trialists under NDA, with a fast but rather erratic pattern of growth because recruitment spreads by word of mouth.  Bar #2 marks the peak of the 2nd trial period, but this one has a very different curve to the first because the trial group already exists at the moment when Virgin announces that new testing is required and makes a request for feedback.  The reaction is nearly instantaneous by those trialists who are available and checking their notifications.

Between bars #3 and #4 lies what seems to be a 2-month period of IPv6 infrastructure rollout, a very steady rate of increase which is a natural outcome of hardware deployment performed by a fixed size team.  The opt-in happened earlier when trialists self-selected, probably picking up a "live rollout test" session soon after the new equipment was deployed in their area, merely by rebooting their CPEs.  There is some indication that the rollout actually started considerably earlier than at bar #3, because the drop-off in APNIC counts from the peak at #2 does not have the expected reverse exponential curve.  This suggests that we are seeing a superposition of two components instead, one the expected drop-off from the original centralized test facility, and two, a new contribution arising from CPEs using the new IPv6 infrastructure as it is rolled out slowly across the UK, if their CPEs are enabled for it.

The peak in IPv6 counts by the end of rollout at bar #4 lies within the range of the two trial peaks, which is additional supporting evidence that the same set of people are involved, the trialists.  So, I think we're there already. 🙂

The icing on the information cake comes from the extremely abrupt drop in counts between bars #4 and #5.  By turning off trialists' IPv6 access, Virgin is treading dangerous ground, because this will be annoying them immensely, especially the gamers.  This is why I think Virgin are intending to launch an IPv6 service imminently, to avoid major discontent among enthusiasts who won't put up with it for long.

Of course it's all conjecture, but it does seem to be consistent with the APNIC data which is statistically very robust.  In any case, it's all we have, as Virgin considers IPv6 deployment a secret.  I just can't get my head around the incomprehensible pointlessness of that.  It has lost them customers.

Anyway, I think we'll see soon enough. 🙂

Morgaine.

"If it only does IPv4, it is broken." -- George Michaelson, APNIC.

Some general UK IPv6 news for today, 2nd May 2018:

BT has just reached another IPv6 milestone --- 4 million daily IPv6 counts as measured by APNIC.  Congratulations, BT !!! 🙂

Here are the last few daily samples taken from APNIC's public stats:

DATE         AS      Users        IPv6-Users  %UKv6
========== == ========== ========== =====
2018_04_29: BT 11,411,215 3,978,234 23.32
2018_04_30: BT 11,422,473 3,996,894 23.32
2018_05_01: BT 11,401,525 3,999,437 23.23
2018_05_02: BT 11,407,197 4,006,326 23.25 <-- Ding!

 

The graph below shows BT's IPv6 growth (light blue curve) in the context of the other "Big Three" UK ISPs, with Sky far in the lead:

apnic_2018_05_02_Wed_all.png

4 million is 34.7% of APNIC counts measured over BT's AS, so achieving it deserves a big pat on the back. When one third of your traffic sessions are carried over IPv6, it's clear that IPv6 has become a solid pillar of the current Internet, not just the Internet of the future.

The graph also highlights a less happy observation, namely that at BT's current rate of IPv6 growth, it will be many years before all BT Broadband customers have an IPv6-enabled CPE --- that's a major problem which needs to be addressed by them. Hopefully the company will roll out their HH6 CPE quickly to all customers in response to their HH5 upgrade issues, or find some other way of overcoming the problem.

If I have interpreted the APNIC data for Virgin Media correctly, BT are about to find themselves in third place behind both Sky and Virgin, and a distant third at that, because Virgin implemented a mandatory CPE upgrade plan recently so it's likely that most remaining legacy kit can support whatever is coming.  If VM manages to provide a large majority of its subscribers with IPv6, BT is going to have to engage an emergency action plan or suffer years of embarrassment and a costly loss of customers.

Morgaine.

"If it only does IPv4, it is broken." -- George Michaelson, APNIC.

Anonymous
Not applicable

Wonder why the BT numbers started ticking up recently having sort of stagnated for a while. I thought it might be because they started a CPE upgrade program of some nature.

The other interesting development in non-VM IPv6 is that EE seems to be growing too. Now up to 8.87% of their users.

I'm not sure apocalyptic projections on BT's in ability to deliver IPv6 to their customers will amount to much! If in the unlikely event they start to lose customers money will no doubt be found for a CPE upgrade for HH5 users. With a general move to FTTP and G.Fast happening there will be a significant natural churn in their CPE base over the coming years anyway.

I do wish Virgin would break cover and be a bit more open about their deployment strategy and timeline. Seems that if they are close to pushing the go button that there's no earthly need for secrecy.

ravenstar68
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@davefiddes wrote:

Wonder why the BT numbers started ticking up recently having sort of stagnated for a while. I thought it might be because they started a CPE upgrade program of some nature.

 

No, nothing like that.  The flat part of BT's growth curve arose when their network developed a fault under which IPv6 provisioning would disappear from individual lines and never come back, ever.  Unfortunately this engineering issue was turned expertly by BT into farcical comedy because IPv6 had been rolled out to their network without ever telling anyone in support, business management, customer information systems / website developers, and nor was IPv6 added to BT Fault Reporting.  As a result, nobody in BT could be approached for a remedy because the response was always "What is IPv6?", or alternatively, "BT doesn't provide residential IPv6".  Totally surreal.  (But thank goodness for the hard data from APNIC.)

Eventually the BT engineering division was informed by BT Community Forum staff that many customers were reporting this IPv6 vanishing act.  I had been reporting falling APNIC numbers to them for a while so that was probably also supplied as evidence.  After 3 months or so a fix was rumoured but it wasn't until a good 6 months elapsed overall before BT IPv6 finally came out of its plateau and returned to growth.  No official explanation of the problem was ever provided, because after all, you can't explain officially the non-working of a service that officially isn't being provided. 😛

They have some really severe problems in BT, and it's not technology that is letting them down.  (After a very curious exchange in the UK IPv6 Council group recently, I now have some hope that BT engineers have awakened to the problem they created and are now talking to other BT divisions about remedies.)

Morgaine.

"If it only does IPv4, it is broken." -- George Michaelson, APNIC.

which is the way it should be for any company. never commit.

That mention of turning off the IPv6 of gamer trailists brought to my mind the other (probably 2 year old) Elephant in the room being the nasty Intel Puma6 issue.  Basically, the core of the SubparHub3 has a flaw which means that under even moderate load it is not capable of responding to aspects of the data passing through it fast enough and the packet latency soars into the 100s of milliseconds.  This is bad news for real-time gaming as it means that timing-important  game data gets held up enough to make some games either unplayable or to cripple the VM customer player relative to other players on ISPs who do not have the Intel device at the core of their CPE {See this topic - but it is now at 374 pages https://community.virginmedia.com/t5/Gaming-Support/Hub-3-Compal-CH7465-LG-TG2492LG-and-CGNV4-Latenc... }. There had not been any indications that VM are in a position to update their way out of it (although a recent post looked a bit promising) - so perhaps they are holding out on switching on IPv6 because running a Dual-Stack on the Hub will make things even worse and they are going to hold out until Intel compensates them {here's a form that VM might want to consider filling out: https://www.classactionlawyers.com/puma6/ !} or they can get their hands on kit that can do the work as a SuperHub4...

I mean, take a look at my Max Latency (yellow graph) right now: My Broadband Ping - SlySven's ISP connection

==========================================================================
If MS Windows is the answer then you may not be asking the right question.

After all this secrecy and time in silence, the least that VM can do is make a small and very dramatic video of when they finally use one of these buttons to deploy IPv6 to production.9903A9CA-9643-4333-BCEE-4FCC9285D3B9.jpeg

 

TonyJr

Off-topic Ah ha, I remember that Button - I got one for a Christmas present for my Silver Surfer mother. I see that an enterprising chap has produced updated software for (in the past Win7) and now Windows 10 - see: http://www.johnbruin.net/index.php/2017/07/22/newest-software-for-your-usb-panic-button-windows-10-c... ...!

==========================================================================
If MS Windows is the answer then you may not be asking the right question.

@SlySven:  From your link:

"This alternative software for the USB Panic Button from Jam has stopped working in Windows 10 so it is finally time for a new version!

 

Big Red Panic Buttons need an Ethernet connection and IPv6 address! 😛  (This would also provide immunity from Microsoft's regular cycles of destruction.)

"If it only does IPv4, it is broken." -- George Michaelson, APNIC.