FIXED.
So despite DNS over TLS working for years with Adguard DNS, this was the cause of the Stream box not working for Live TV channels but working for apps.
I can only assume something was changed at VM within past week, or VM had tracking urls that were were being blocked because they were tracking/monitoring what people were watching and the block causes the stream to fall over.
Setting an exemption on my router to make it use a non-filtering DNS service made it work. This is not how I like to run my network though and operators should not be dictating this - so going to have to likely dump the Stream service I think, although it's in an isolated VLAN anyway away from other devices.