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Morgaine
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Message 761 of 783
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Re: IPv6 support on Virgin media

@Optimist1 asked:

How accurate are those figures? What does "user" mean? An IPV6 address? If so, the whole 128 bits, or just the routeable 64?

The figures are counts of IP addresses actually observed by APNIC, so APNIC's column heading of "V6 Users (est)" is just shorthand for something more complex. It's not too bad for general public consumption but perhaps a bit misleading.

APNIC's measurements are formally proxies, in science/engineering terminology.  I wrote a longish post about them in message 476 of this thread back in April 2018, based on a response I made in the UK IPv6 Council group at LinkedIn:

https://community.virginmedia.com/t5/QuickStart-set-up-and/IPv6-support-on-Virgin-media/m-p/3699649#...

The question about accuracy is interesting.  The accuracy is very dependent on what you're actually trying to measure, since proxies can have a complex relationship to the desired (but hidden) quantity.  In engineering terms, the figures have relatively low accuracy because of the very indirect method of measurement and the many things that affect the process.  However, their precision can be very high for ISPs that have IPv6 user populations in the millions, since that provides APNIC with very robust statistical populations.

(As a perfect example of very high precision but quite low accuracy, just remember the recent common-mode fault in APNIC measurements that I described in message 750.  APNICs figures are very precise for Sky and BT, yet for several days their accuracy and utility as proxies got badly disconnected from the quantity that we're trying to track --- low accuracy.)

In Virgin's case, both the accuracy and the precision are rather low, since the relationship between the proxy measurements and IPv6 user counts is highly uncertain without a public IPv6 release, and the statistical population for their IPv6 counts is pretty low too.

It's worth noting that IPv6 provides end-to-end connectivity from each client device, whereas residential IPv4 users are given a single IPv4 address and all of their devices appear publicly as that single address coming out of their CPE's NAT.  Consequently, publicly observed addresses are usually proportional to account numbers for IPv4, but proportional to device numbers for IPv6, which is why APNIC IPv6 counts are typically larger than actual user counts.  Proxies are very valuable in the absence of direct data, but one has to tie down what they represent to gain the most benefit from them.

Morgaine.

"If it only does IPv4, it is broken." -- George Michaelson, APNIC.
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davefiddes
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Message 762 of 783
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Re: IPv6 support on Virgin media

@Optimist1 wrote:
How accurate are those figures? What does "user" mean? An IPV6 address? If so, the whole 128 bits, or just the routeable 64?

There's a good presentation on how APNIC do it and what they measure here:

https://conference.apnic.net/44/assets/files/APCS549/Measuring-IPv6-using-Ad-based-Measurement.pdf

The TLDR is they use a random sample of adverts and the IPv4 and IPv6 responses across a given geography (Europe, Northe America,etc). The specific IPv4/IPv6 addresses are unimportant outside of classification of which ISP the sample corresponds to. User samples are separated by their unique advertising tracking ID. The samples are then scaled by the ITU figures for Internet users in a given country. The numbers aren't intended or possible to be accurate.

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Adduxi
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Message 763 of 783
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Re: IPv6 support on Virgin media


@louis-m wrote:

<snip>I do think the change to IPv6 will be more imminently evident to residential users as they will be switched to IPv6 and IPv4 CGNAT. Maybe VM will allow residential users (for a limited period) to switch back to IPv4 to gain full NAT or force them onto a new (and slightly more costly) tariff?


I think Liberty Global in Ireland already give "gamers" the choice of reverting back to IPv4 so they can maintain NAT and I don't think they charge for this.

However I can see this as a cash cow for VM, given the amount of avid gamers who post on these Forums ........

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Optimist1
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Message 764 of 783
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Re: IPv6 support on Virgin media


@davefiddes wrote:
@Optimist1 wrote:
How accurate are those figures? What does "user" mean? An IPV6 address? If so, the whole 128 bits, or just the routeable 64?

There's a good presentation on how APNIC do it and what they measure here:

https://conference.apnic.net/44/assets/files/APCS549/Measuring-IPv6-using-Ad-based-Measurement.pdf

The TLDR is they use a random sample of adverts and the IPv4 and IPv6 responses across a given geography (Europe, Northe America,etc). The specific IPv4/IPv6 addresses are unimportant outside of classification of which ISP the sample corresponds to. User samples are separated by their unique advertising tracking ID. The samples are then scaled by the ITU figures for Internet users in a given country. The numbers aren't intended or possible to be accurate.


Thank you for that explanation, @davefiddes!

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fyonn
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Message 765 of 783
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Re: IPv6 support on Virgin media


@Adduxi wrote:

@louis-m wrote:

<snip>I do think the change to IPv6 will be more imminently evident to residential users as they will be switched to IPv6 and IPv4 CGNAT. Maybe VM will allow residential users (for a limited period) to switch back to IPv4 to gain full NAT or force them onto a new (and slightly more costly) tariff?


I think Liberty Global in Ireland already give "gamers" the choice of reverting back to IPv4 so they can maintain NAT and I don't think they charge for this.

However I can see this as a cash cow for VM, given the amount of avid gamers who post on these Forums ........


Does this reversion to ipv4 lose the ipv6 side? is it one or the other?

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Adduxi
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Message 766 of 783
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Re: IPv6 support on Virgin media


@fyonn wrote:

@Adduxi wrote:

@louis-m wrote:

<snip>I do think the change to IPv6 will be more imminently evident to residential users as they will be switched to IPv6 and IPv4 CGNAT. Maybe VM will allow residential users (for a limited period) to switch back to IPv4 to gain full NAT or force them onto a new (and slightly more costly) tariff?


I think Liberty Global in Ireland already give "gamers" the choice of reverting back to IPv4 so they can maintain NAT and I don't think they charge for this.

However I can see this as a cash cow for VM, given the amount of avid gamers who post on these Forums ........


Does this reversion to ipv4 lose the ipv6 side? is it one or the other?


AFAIK, it gives the user an IPv4 address only, so that NAT for gaming is not affected.  That's my understanding anyway.

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Dagger2
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Message 767 of 783
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Re: IPv6 support on Virgin media

I suppose I'm probably tilting at windmills here, but... having v6 doesn't break existing games. Games that don't support it will just ignore it.

VM in Ireland use DS-lite, which means that in addition to getting v6, your v4 gets CGNATed. It's the CGNAT that's the problem, not the v6 -- in fact the v6 is the solution to the problems the CGNAT causes.

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Adduxi
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Message 768 of 783
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Re: IPv6 support on Virgin media


@Dagger2 wrote:

I suppose I'm probably tilting at windmills here, but... having v6 doesn't break existing games. Games that don't support it will just ignore it.

VM in Ireland use DS-lite, which means that in addition to getting v6, your v4 gets CGNATed. It's the CGNAT that's the problem, not the v6 -- in fact the v6 is the solution to the problems the CGNAT causes.


Yes, agreed. My XBox uses IPv6 and I don't have to port forward or jump through hoops to get XBox live "opened"  However, I was only pointing out the "solution" in Ireland.  Smiley Happy

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Timwilky
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Message 769 of 783
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Re: IPv6 support on Virgin media

The lack of a proper dual stack provision is the problem. Well at least until v4 disappears completely from the innternet. I currently use HE tunnelbroker to provide my V6 and will be happy to continue till the day there is no ISP out there only using v4.

Until that day how can I connect back to my network and home devices when the connection in the hotel/bar etc is IPv4? I spend most of my days on sites that only have v4 and getting a VPN established back to home through a site firewall etc can be a devil of a job in the first place.
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matthewsteeples
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Message 770 of 783
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Re: IPv6 support on Virgin media


@Timwilky wrote:
Until that day how can I connect back to my network and home devices when the connection in the hotel/bar etc is IPv4? I spend most of my days on sites that only have v4 and getting a VPN established back to home through a site firewall etc can be a devil of a job in the first place.

I'd recommend Zerotier. Free for up to 100 devices or run your own server. Depends on what the firewall blocks though. 

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